Wednesday, 5 March 2008

Two Democrats and a Republican

The following is the results from the Democrat primaries which took place on March 4th:
StateCandidateVote %ageDelegates
TexasHillary Clinton5116
Barack Obama4810
OhioHillary Clinton5462
Barack Obama4446
VermontHillary Clinton609
Barack Obama386
Rhode IslandHillary Clinton5812
Barack Obama408
N.B.Texas seems to have a caucus and a primary, which is something I've not seen before. I'm not showing the result of the caucus because at the time of typing, the results are still being processed.

This table shows the GOP results for the primaries on March 4th:
StateCandidateVote %ageDelegates
TexasJohn McCain5170
Mike Huckabee380
Ron Paul50
OhioJohn McCain6079
Mike Huckabee310
Ron Paul50
VermontJohn McCain7217
Mike Huckabee140
Ron Paul70
Rhode IslandJohn McCain6513
Mike Huckabee224
Ron Paul70
The wins for Hillary Clinton were very important. It meant she secured a significant number of delegates and gained some much needed momentum after losing Barack Obama in eight primaries in a row. However, it should be noted that Obama also increased his delegate count and that meant the victories weren't so spectacular. As a result, Obama still leads the overall delegate count (1451 vs. 1365).

The Washington Post has an interesting viewpoint:
"For months before his victory in Iowa, doubters questioned whether Obama had the stomach to deliver the blows necessary to wear down Clinton's advantages. Now, the question is whether he can take a punch..."
I don't understand why they think Obama is struggling. He's still in the lead - look at the statistics! He's won 25 primaries/caucuses, Hillary's won 16 and two of those had no delegates up for grabs. How on earth could that be considered 'struggling'?

According to CNN, the delegate count that's needed to secure the Republican nomination is 1191 and John McCain 1226, so he will become the GOP candidate at convention time. It's quite a comeback considering he was short of money early on and Mitt Romney was taking some big victories. Losing the first caucus (Iowa) was also a blow. However, McCain ended up winning in the places that had the most delegates and, as we all know by now, delegates are the most important thing in a US election.After the results were announced, Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race which means the only other active GOP candidate is Ron Paul, but his total is comparitively minor (21).

What McCain doesn't want to see is:
"...another tired debate of false promises, empty sound bites, or useless arguments from the past that address not a single of America’s concerns for their family’s security."
The following picture is from this article:

Yes - that's right. John McCain has now received the dreaded 'Kiss of Death'™. George W. Bush has officially endorsed him. You might see him smiling in that picture, but now McCain will struggle to attract the anti-Bush crowd.

So, what do you think?

Technorati tags: USA, Election, Politics, John McCain, Hillary Clinton, USA


Alfred Thompson said...

I watched someone on TV tonight look at the upcoming primaries. If Obama and Clinton split them with Obama winning some and Clinton winning some then neither one of them will have enough to lock in the nomination by the time of the convention. That is something I have been wanted to watch for decades now. It should make for great theatre but it will not be good for the Democratic party. Well that's life. :-)
At this point someone has to land a knockout blow and win most of the remaining primaries by a lot to win outright. Frankly I do not see that happening.
McCain has been a supporter of Bush's on the war in Iraq so it is not surprising that Bush endorsed him. Plus of course as the leader of the party the President pretty much has an obligation to endorse the winner of the primaries season. Likewise McCain needs Bush to attract voters from the war supporting wing of the population which includes some Democrats as well as Republicans. It will be interesting to see when, how and over what issues McCain distances himself from the President as time goes on.